How many times have we all bought things not because we needed them or it was an essential item but because we thought we might never get a chance to buy it back? In this day and age of consumerism, urgency becomes the focal reason behind making purchasing decisions rather than rationality. Many companies use this and release blind boxes and do limited edition launches. This increases the powerful fear of missing out and shapes how, when and why consumers buy.

The interplay of urgency and scarcity augurs consumer decisions made without rationale and influenced by cognitive biases. Many psychological factors significantly enhance the consumer’s perceived risk of missing out on desirable products, and one of the most imperative of them is the scarcity effect, which lays the foundation of scarcity marketing.

Scarcity marketing operates by turning limited availability into heightened desire. The exclusivity of a limited stock product adds emotional value to it, making consumers automatically attracted to it. Scarcity Marketing is practised through flash launches, countdowns, or sudden product drops that make buying feel more like an exciting experience for consumers.

According to a comprehensive 2022 meta-analysis, including 131 studies and 416 effect sizes, it was revealed that scarcity cues influence consumer purchasing decisions consistently. The research also highlights that not all scarcity cues work in the same way. Supply-based scarcity, that includes limited-edition releases, has the most substantial impact on consumer purchasing behaviour because it signals exclusivity. This is followed by time-based and demand-based scarcity, which have ‘limited windows for purchase’ and ‘selling fast’ respectively as gimmicks to influence consumer decisions. These, however, have less influence than supply-based scarcity.

Blind boxes, similarly, hook customers. A blind box is a type of product that contains a random toy, accessory, merchandise, or other item within a sealed box. This type of product originated from “Sonny Angel”, which is owned by the Japanese company Dreams  Inc. Sonny Angel has established a cult following among thousands of collectors as a result of its unique marketing strategy and adorable figures. POPMART followed suit and pivoted to even bigger blind boxes. Today, Labubus, Hello Kitty, and Squishmallows are among the many blind boxes being sold to consumers worldwide.

The effectiveness of blind boxes can be contributed to several psychological factors that influence consumer purchasing decisions. Loss aversion is a crucial concept of behavioural economics that emphasizes that consumers perceive losses more intensely than equivalent gains. A 2023 survey by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) reported that over 65% of Chinese consumers who are repeated blind boxes buyers buy them solely for the reason that they might miss out on obtaining valuable items. This approach is directly taps into the concept of Fear of Missing Out, or FOMO. The possibility of losing out on rare products pushes people to make decisions quickly, sometimes ditching their regular check routine. According to a 2022 iiMedia Research poll, more than 70% of blind box buyers in China said FOMO influenced their choices.

Apart from FOMO, the absolute randomness of blind boxes activates a psychological mechanism known as variable ratio reinforcement, which is similar to the underlying reward pattern in gambling. Because what the buyer might get is unpredictable, they stay hooked on the anticipation of a rare outcome, often trying multiple times despite low odds.

Additionally, the “Sunk Cost Fallacy” also compounds and forces the buyer even more than they have already invested. The same study found that nearly 40% of Chinese consumers who purchased blind boxes reported making additional purchases due to a desire to “complete the collection.”

At its core, the mystery of missing out lies in the fact that consumers are driven by more than just the product. Scarcity Marketing, whether through limited editions or blind boxes, capitalises on consumer emotions and cognitive biases such as loss aversion, FOMO, variable reinforcement and the sunk cost fallacy, to name a few. These tactics turn an ordinary buying process into an emotionally charged experience, where exclusivity, randomness and anticipation blur the line between choice and compulsion. As brands continue to find new similar tactics to attract consumers, understanding such tactics and how they influence the purchasing process becomes essential- not just for marketers but also for consumers striving to recognise when desire is manufactured rather than genuine.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-trends/pop-mart-gains-fans-as-chinese-toymaker-leverages-blind-box-craze